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Bridger Aerospace Group Holdings, Inc. (BAER)·Q1 2025 Earnings Summary

Executive Summary

  • Record Q1 revenue of $15.6M (+184% y/y) on earliest-ever scooper deployments and added surveillance activity; net loss improved to $(15.5)M; Adjusted EBITDA was $(5.1)M .
  • Guidance reiterated: FY2025 revenue $105–$111M and Adjusted EBITDA $42–$48M; guidance excludes Spanish Super Scoopers; management expects continued improvement in operating cash flow .
  • Operational catalysts: exclusive-use contracts in Alaska ($20.1M over 5 years) and Montana (minimum $648K/year), plus FMS integration for year-round revenue and sensor capabilities .
  • Financing catalyst: signed $46M sale-leaseback of HQ facilities to reduce debt and lower cash interest, with closing targeted for Q3 2025 .
  • Narrative supports year-round activity reducing volatility and supporting estimate stability into peak season; however, Q1 seasonality still drives negative EBITDA and operating cash outflows due to winter maintenance .

What Went Well and What Went Wrong

What Went Well

  • Early deployments drove a record Q1 revenue result ($15.6M) and improved net loss; “earliest deployment... in January” with operations in CA, OK, NC .
  • Strategic wins: 5-year $20.1M DOI/BLM Alaska contract (two PC-12s) and an exclusive-use Montana wildfire detection/mapping contract (Kodiak 100, minimum $648K/year) .
  • Year-round revenue diversification: FMS contributed $1.9M in Q1 and is building DoD-related pipeline; sensor upgrades and Ignis app integration to enhance situational awareness .

What Went Wrong

  • Return-to-service (RTS) work for Spanish Scoopers is largely pass-through: $5.9M revenue but ~$5.6M increase in maintenance costs, weighing on Q1 gross/EBITDA .
  • Q1 seasonality continues to pressure cash and margins: net cash used in ops $(17.7)M) as winter maintenance/training expenses hit in Q1; Adjusted EBITDA $(5.1)M) .
  • Limited estimates coverage for Q1 makes “beat/miss” framing unavailable; guidance remains conservative pending full-season contracting/appropriations .

Financial Results

MetricQ1 2024Q3 2024Q4 2024Q1 2025
Revenue ($USD Millions)$5.507 $64.507 $15.585 $15.646
Net Income (Loss) ($USD Millions)$(20.087) $27.346 $(12.845) $(15.538)
Adjusted EBITDA ($USD Millions)$(6.928) $46.974 $(2.901) $(5.077)
Diluted EPS ($)$(0.55) $0.31 $(0.36) $(0.41)
Operating/Mix MetricsQ1 2024Q3 2024Q4 2024Q1 2025
Gross Income (Loss) ($USD Millions)$(3.699) $41.506 $0.184 $(1.561)
Operating Income (Loss) ($USD Millions)$(15.309) $32.865 $(7.483) $(10.151)
Revenue CompositionQ1 2024Q1 2025
Total Revenue ($USD Millions)$5.507 $15.646
Return-to-Service (Spanish Scoopers) ($USD Millions)~$1.0 ~$5.9
FMS Contribution ($USD Millions)—~$1.9
Revenue excl. RTS (approx) ($USD Millions)~4.5 ~9.7
Cash & Liquidity KPIsQ1 2024Q3 2024Q4 2024Q1 2025
Cash & Cash Equivalents ($USD Millions)$6.776 $33.328 $39.336 $22.349
Operating Cash FlowQ1 2024Q1 2025
Net Cash from Operating Activities ($USD Millions)$(22.762) $(17.656)

Notes: RTS revenues are primarily pass-through and reduce margins in reported periods .

Guidance Changes

MetricPeriodPrevious GuidanceCurrent GuidanceChange
Revenue ($USD Millions)FY 2025$105–$111 $105–$111 Maintained
Adjusted EBITDA ($USD Millions)FY 2025$42–$48 $42–$48 Maintained
Operating Cash FlowFY 2025Expect continued improvement Expects continued improvement Maintained
Spanish Super Scoopers in GuidanceFY 2025Excluded Excluded Maintained

Earnings Call Themes & Trends

TopicPrevious Mentions (Q3 2024)Previous Mentions (Q4 2024)Current Period (Q1 2025)Trend
Year-round wildfire activityPL5 days; aircraft operating into Oct/Nov; shoulder-season standby Earliest January deployments; continued risk in TX/OK; negative Q1 EBITDA expected Earliest January deployments; above-average fires/acreage; longer season expected Increasing duration
Exclusive-use contractsMultiple EU commitments drove utilization Targeting multiyear EU contracts to reduce volatility 5-year Alaska IDIQ; Montana EU (minimum $648K/year) Expanding
Spanish Super Scoopers RTSFirst two near completion; sourcing EU contracts in Europe First aircraft got airworthiness; 2nd in ~60 days; funding from JV Two near imminent airworthiness; European tenders in Turkey/Portugal; pass-through costs in Q1 Progressing to deployment
FMS Aerospace and non-fire revenueFMS contributed $1.6M; pipeline building $3.0M FY contribution; year-round contracts; cost rationalization $1.9M Q1 revenue; DoD/engineering pipeline; Kodiak sensor integration Strengthening
Regulatory/legalAddressing politically motivated attacks; CEO search More calls for regulatory change; bipartisan support Multiple bills in Congress; agency changes anticipated to streamline response Constructive policy tailwinds
Technology/R&D (Sensors/Software)Ignis app pilots; sensor imagery integration plans Ignis subscriptions expected; sensor downlink Linking real-time sensor imagery with Ignis; tiered subscriptions Advancing execution

Management Commentary

  • “This early wildfire activity helped to drive record first quarter revenue of $15.6 million, an increase of 184% over last year.” – CEO Sam Davis .
  • “We signed a 5-year $20.1 million... contract for... Alaska Fire Service... [and] exclusive use... for the state of Montana... minimum annual value of $648,000.” – CEO Sam Davis .
  • “Adjusted EBITDA was negative $5.1 million... compared to negative $6.9 million... due to historic seasonality... typically negative in Q1.” – CFO Eric Gerratt .
  • “We continue to project 20% growth in adjusted EBITDA at the midpoint... $42–$48 million on revenue of $105–$111 million... guidance excludes any impact from the Spanish Super Scoopers.” – SVP John Saunders .

Q&A Highlights

  • DHS/Border Patrol funding and utilization: PC-12 fleet currently at high utilization through November; potential new contracts would be sourced via other airframes or added capacity .
  • Europe contracting: Negotiations include Turkey and Portugal; governments want airworthiness certificates in hand before awards; broader demand rising amid recent fires (e.g., Israel, South Korea) .
  • Guidance clarity: FY2025 guidance excludes Spanish Scoopers; majority of EBITDA expected in Q3 given fixed-cost structure and seasonality .

Estimates Context

  • S&P Global quarterly consensus for Q1 2025 EPS and revenue was unavailable, reflecting limited coverage in early-year seasonal period; therefore, no “beat/miss” comparison for Q1 can be made from Wall Street consensus .
  • Company-provided FY2025 guidance remains the anchor for investor expectations (Revenue $105–$111M; Adjusted EBITDA $42–$48M) .
    Values retrieved from S&P Global.*

Key Takeaways for Investors

  • Bold early-season execution: record Q1 revenue and improved net loss signal growing year-round demand; RTS pass-through limits margin, but core suppression/surveillance activity up materially .
  • Guidance intact and conservative: reiterated FY2025 revenue and EBITDA ranges; upside exists from Spanish Scoopers contracting and regulatory tailwinds not yet embedded .
  • Exclusive-use mix is rising: Alaska and Montana contracts expand guaranteed revenue and reduce quarter-to-quarter volatility; utilization should benefit as fleet readiness stays year-round .
  • Financing and balance sheet: $46M sale-leaseback expected to lower debt/interest expense without operational disruption, a constructive near-term de-risking catalyst .
  • Seasonal cash/margin dynamics: expect Q1/Q4 to remain EBITDA-negative given maintenance/training cadence; monitor cash burn versus Q2/Q3 inflections .
  • European optionality: Spanish Scoopers nearing airworthiness for two aircraft and talks in Turkey/Portugal; successful deployments could add high-margin revenue streams .
  • Technology differentiation: FMS and Ignis integration (sensor imagery to app) strengthens bid competitiveness and supports multi-mission/DoD opportunities .